Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
