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During the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán was notable as the only European Union leader to endorse Donald Trump. This backing was hardly surprising, in light of Mr Orbán's adoption of controversial theories like population replacement concept and his suppression of media freedom. Observers have noted that Hungary's premier essentially wrote the playbook for the Make America Great Again campaign, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon hailing Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Electoral Support In advance of the Hungarian Vote

Recently, with crucial Hungarian elections merely approaching in six months, the American leader reciprocated with support. With Orbán aims for a fifth consecutive term governing a country he describes as an illiberal democracy, his Fidesz party currently trails in the polls. A meeting to Washington resulted in more than some autographed Trump merchandise; it secured highly beneficial pre-election gifts.

Energy Exemptions and Economic Protections

Although earlier instructing EU countries on the necessity to eliminate all energy imports from the Russian Federation, and warning of penalties against countries continuing to buy Russian oil, Mr Trump approved to allow a particular exclusion for the Hungarian government – the biggest user in the EU of Russian crude. According to Mr Orbán, the US government also promised to offer a fiscal buffer to the Hungarian authorities should it faces any later issues, particularly since EU institutions continues to withhold substantial EU funds to the nation because of rule-of-law breaches.

The details of this arrangement seem vague. But Mr Trump recently demonstrated his inclination to support like-minded partners after the America extended a $20bn emergency credit line to Javier Milei, the South American leader. Although Orbán failed to obtain a campaign-energising Trump visit to Budapest, the Washington talks still was a profitable day’s work.

Brussels' Worries and Global Ramifications

Within EU circles, Mr Trump’s intervention likely emphasized the international consequences of the upcoming vote, prior to which the centrist challenger, the rival candidate, has a clear edge in the polls. EU chiefs are accustomed not to anticipate reliable policies from the US government, and have grown used to the American leader's moves to diminish the EU. Yet the waiver for Hungary – obtained in exchange for an deal to acquire American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens European goals to end Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027.

• Since 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian petroleum, Hungary and Slovakia, have funneled well over £10bn to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• Simultaneously, Hungary has consistently deployed the blocking vote to stymie progress in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• As the EU attempts to develop a cohesive plan for aiding the Ukrainian government, and bolstering its position in any later diplomatic discussions, Orbán's pro-Russia stance at the diplomatic table remains a significant obstacle.

Challenger's Position

Mr Magyar has steered clear of promising a major policy shift on the war in Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on domestic issues, while highlighting the importance for Hungary to finally behave as a constructive EU member. After enduring persistent provocations, the European Union can only remain patient. The Hungarian leader's apathy to basic EU values, such as the support for minority protections and the autonomy of civic groups, has persisted as a source of shame for the EU. His ongoing blocking tactics regarding the Ukraine issue could harm its future security.